OMS and MISO have released the results of a new survey with important findings that underscore the critical role the coal fleet continues to play in providing reliable electricity. MISO is responsible for operating the grid across all or parts of 15 central U.S. states, and its survey identified several notable trends.
Electricity demand continues to grow rapidly. The survey found that MISO needs more than 11 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity every year just to keep pace with accelerating load growth. These demands are caused by data centers, electrification, and new industrial loads. Because of this demand surge, the MISO system can’t afford to retire reliable baseload coal power plants.
New capacity is not coming online as quickly as expected. Roughly 87 GW of signed interconnection agreements have yet to materialize, and there is growing uncertainty on when new projects will be completed. At the same time, almost 20 GW of coal are expected to retire in the next 5 years. Retiring coal plants would be a reckless gamble with potentially grave consequences for ratepayers.
Winter is becoming the riskiest season for potential disruptions. While summer has traditionally posed the highest risks for blackouts, MISO now acknowledges that seasonal risk is shifting toward a 50/50 split between summer and winter. Winter storms and severe cold snaps pose system-wide risks that only increase if operators are overly reliant on intermittent resources like wind and solar. Dispatchable resources with on-site fuel storage like coal are indispensable to reliability during the winter months. This was evident during Winter Storm Fern last January, when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that coal power plants supplied 30% more electricity than they had a week earlier before the storm, while output from wind and solar was significantly lower.
Capacity accreditation reform is a double-edged sword for intermittent resources. The shift to Direct Loss of Load (DLOL) accreditation in Planning Year 2028/2029, which values resources during the highest risk hours, will show how little wind and solar contribute when the grid is most stressed. Resources that can’t perform during critical hours will see their capacity value reduced. This will have the greatest impact on intermittent resources. This will require even more generation to meet demand.
The current grid is not as reliable as some think. Just consider the need for more than 11 GW of new capacity every year, the retirement of more than 20 GW of coal announced retirements over the next 5 years, and the growing uncertainty over when new projects will be completed.
The findings from the OMS-MISO survey demonstrate coal’s importance. As electricity demand grows and new projects are delayed, existing coal plants are vital to protecting reliability and avoiding costly and dangerous blackouts.