Recently, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) published its “2024 Regional Resource Assessment” (RRA). MISO is responsible for operating the electricity grid across 15 states and Manitoba, Canada to ensure the power supply in its region is reliable and affordable. Last year, MISO’s installed generating capacity totaled 202,000 megawatts (MW), and its electricity was generated by natural gas (40%), coal (26%), wind (15%), nuclear (14%), solar (2%) and hydro (2%).
The RRA forecasts the mix of electric generating resources over a 20-year timeframe (2024-2043) that would be needed to satisfy electricity demand and achieve the green energy goals (“policy driven goals”) of MISO members in the most reliable and economic manner. MISO estimates that 98% of the electricity in the MISO region is provided by generators that have adopted green energy policies.
Comparing the resources needed to meet green energy goals and the resources that are actually planned shows an enormous 180,000 MW gap between the two because planned resources do not come close to achieving the green energy goals that MISO members and states have announced.
MISO members plan to add 163,000 MW of generating capacity over the next 20 years. On the other hand, the RRA forecasts a need for 343,000 MW of additional generating capacity over the same time period in order to meet green energy goals. This means that MISO members would have to add an average of 17,000 MW per year of mostly new battery storage, wind and solar to reach 343,000 MW. The RRA calls this level of buildout “unprecedented and extraordinary” because new capacity additions have averaged only 4,700 MW per year in the past.
However, the situation is even more daunting than it seems. First, supply chain delays, permitting issues, clogged interconnection queues, and other factors could further complicate efforts to add new resources. Second, even though adding an average of 17,000 MW per year is hard enough to fathom, the amount of new capacity spikes in 2035 (67,000 MW of new capacity) and 2040 (53,000 MW of new capacity) in order to meet policy-driven deadlines. Third, even more generating capacity than the RRA projects might be needed because of data centers, artificial intelligence, and electrification.
MISO stresses that the RRA results are not an actual “resource shortfall,” but are basically a heads up to MISO members. Let’s hope MISO members respond to the warning and reconsider their unrealistic green energy goals.